Thread:Shanethefilmmaker/@comment-397235-20140829052131/@comment-397235-20140903013221

What I meant though, is Kouichi met Mei because Mei was saying goodbye to her sister one last time. Had Misaki not died, Mei wouldn't have had to go to the hospital; QED they never would've met, and one of them (presumably either Tomohiko, Naoya, or maybe Izumi in a rare bout of competence) would've explained things to her. If Kouichi hadn't ever taken an interest in Mei in the first place, neither would the rest of her classmates, meaning both good and bad things (for one, nobody would've subjected her to the emotional abuse she suffered in the last few scenes; on the other hand, she'd also still be alone, and there's a good chance the Curse would've still killed her).

This means several things:

Yukari's mom would've almost certainly still been killed. However, considering Yukari's own death was brought about by her panicking when she saw Kouichi blatantly breaking the rules with Mei, she might have survived. This has ramifications later on.

Ikuo, already ill, would've still probably died, but not explaining the rules to Kouichi, absolving him of his false guilt.

Kouichi wouldn't have had to ask Sanae for information about Mei and Misaki. She still might've died, but Takeru wouldn't have blamed him for her death; in fact, if anything, they might end up bonding over her.

Given that Kouichi wouldn't have more than an average interest in figuring out what's going on, he wouldn't have come to Izumi's attention. As a result, there probably wouldn't be a trip to the beach, so Junta wouldn't have died there (given his track record the Inn still would've probably killed him).

I doubt anything would've prevented Aya and Atsuji's deaths; however, with no one to focus her despair and anger on, Yumi probably wouldn't have lost it and gotten herself killed.

Having not witnessed Yukari and then Junta's deaths, and furthermore having not had an obsessive Izumi telling her all about how everything is Mei's fault, Takako probably wouldn't have misremembered Misaki; in fact she probably would've ignored Mei entirely. Not sure if this would change her fate or not; in the novel she's killed by Keiko Numata (I always assume trying to help Izumi), in the manga she's asphyxiated by the fire, and I think we all remember her death in the anime. Considering that she never harasses Mei in the movie (and in fact, tries to calm Izumi down when she's ready to go hunting) it's possible Takako would survive.

Having not herself developed her deep seated hatred of Mei (since there's no reason to blame her for her friends deaths, assuming they even happened) Izumi would've probably focused on helping her classmates get out of the Inn; she has no reason to go Mei hunting. Her survival is again debatable.

Since Kouichi and Mei aren't friends, he's probably a lot closer to the guys in his class, Naoya, Tomohiko, and Yuuya. Thus he's in a position to either prevent Naoya from nearly killing Tomohiko, or Yuuya from being cornered by Izumi and bullied into playing her and Takako the tape; stopping either of these events prevents a significant number of class 3's deaths. Also, if Yukari hadn't died, or at least hadn't died in a way readily linked to Kouichi, Tomohiko would've had no real reason to resent him.

And of course, in the long run, since Kouichi and Mei aren't friends, Mei has no one to tell how to end the Curse. Either she's killed attempting to kill Reiko, Kouichi sees what's she's doing and prevents it, a lonely Mei is killed by the Calamity in some other way, or Mei is forced to fight and potentially kill Kouichi so she can kill his aunt. None of these are especially happy outcomes.

So everything really flows from Misaki's death.